녹색당 대안전력 시나리오 2030

 

2017. 5.

 

에너지기후정책연구소

한재각 ․ 권승문 ․ 김남영

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목차

1. 연구의 배경 및 목적 ······································································································· 1

1) 배경과 목적 ·················································································································· 1

2) 진행 경과 ··················································································································· 1

2. 녹색당의 대안적 에너지시나리오의 역사 ········································································ 2

1) 2030년 탈핵 에너지전환 시나리오(2012년 총선 공약) ···················································· 2

2) 녹색당 대안전력 시나리오 2030(2015년 제7차 전기본의 대응 시나리오) ························ 4

3. 변화된 상황과 조건들 ····································································································· 8

1) 전력소비 추세의 변화 및 요인 분석 ·············································································· 8

2) 전력(발전)산업 및 관련 산업의 현황 ··········································································· 12

3) 정치사회적인 변화 ······································································································ 16

4) 종합 ·························································································································· 23

4. 7차 전력수급기본계획과 대안적인 시나리오들 ······························································· 25

1) 제7차 전력수급기본계획(산업부, 2015) ········································································ 25

2) 환경부의 독자적인 전력수요 예측(환경부, 2015) ·························································· 28

3) 에너지경제연구원(2016)의 장기 에너지전망(2040 년) ····················································· 31

4) 환경운동연합의 100% 재생에너지 시나리오(2017. 4) ··················································· 35

5) 종합 ··························································································································· 39

5. 주요 전제 전망 ············································································································· 41

1) 인구 구조 ··················································································································· 41

2) 경제성장 ····················································································································· 41

3) 산업 구조 ··················································································································· 42

4) 외부 비용 ··················································································································· 46

6. 대안 전력 수요 시나리오 ······························································································ 47

1) 전력 수요 전망 ··········································································································· 47

2) 용도별 전력 수요 전망 ································································································ 50

3) 제조업종별 전력 수요 전망 ························································································· 51

4) 산업별 전력원단위 전망 ······························································································ 52

7. 대안 전력 공급 시나리오 ······························································································ 54

1) 탈핵 로드맵 ················································································································ 54

2) 탈석탄 로드맵 ············································································································· 55

3) 발전 설비 구성 ··········································································································· 56

8. 시나리오 구성 및 결과 분석 ························································································· 59

1) 모델링 방법론 ··········································································································· 59

2) 시나리오 구성 ············································································································· 60

3) 시나리오 결과 분석 ···································································································· 61

참고문헌 ··························································································································· 75

부록 ································································································································· 76